TABLE OF CONTENTS
PROLOGUE Power and Disaster
CHAPTER 1 Beginnings: Japan Aims High
1.0 Motivations for Energy Independence
1.1 Laying the Foundations for Nuclear Power in the 1950s and 1960s
1.2 The Atomic Energy Commission (AEC) Sets Priorities
1.3 Creation of the Science and Technology Agency (STA)
1.3.1 The STA’s R&D Organizations
1.3.1.1 The Atomic Fuel Corporation (AFC)
1.3.1.2 The Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI), Undermined by Union Disputes
1.4 The Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development Corporation (PNC)
1.5 Japan Nuclear Cycle Development Institute (JNC), A Caretaker Agency
1.6 Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA)
1.7 The Fall of the STA and the Rise of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry (METI)
1.8 METI’s Influence Grows along with the Nuclear Power Industry and Utilities
1.9 Japan’s Nuclear Policymaking: Irregularities and Lack of Transparency
1.10 Impact of Bureaucratic Rivalries and Accidents on Safety Oversight
CHAPTER 2 Successes and Failures of Big National Projects
2.0 Japan’s Big National Projects
2.1 Uranium Mining, Exploration and Enrichment
2.1.1 Ningyo-toge Pilot Enrichment Plant and Prototype Enrichment Plant
2.2 Advanced Thermal Reactors (ATR) and Fast Breeder Reactors (FBR)
2.2.1 Advanced Thermal Reactor Fugen
2.2.2 Fast Breeder Reactors
2.2.2.1 Experimental FBR Joyo
2.2.2.2. Prototype FBR Monju
2.3 Reprocessing
2.3.1 Tokai Prototype Reprocessing Plant
CHAPTER 3 Commercialization of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle
3.0 Struggling Over Priorities, Technical Challenges, and New Plant Construction
3.1 Commercialization of the Front-End Nuclear Fuel Cycle
3.1.1 Tragedy Strikes the JCO Fuel Preparation Plant
3.1.2 Mitsubishi Nuclear Fuel Company (MNF) Fuel Fabrication Plant
3.1.3 Nuclear Fuel Industries Fuel Fabrication Plants
3.1.4 Global Nuclear Fuel—Japan (GNF-J) Fuel Fabrication Plant
3.1.5 A merger of NFI, GNF and MNF
3.1.6 Rokkasho Enrichment Plant (REP)
3.2 Commercialization of the Back-End Nuclear Fuel Cycle
3.2.1 The Fight for the Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP)
3.2.1.1 Use of Immature Technology Causes Delays at RRP
3.2.2 Rokkasho MOX Fuel Fabrication Plant (J-MOX)
CHAPTER 4 The Build-Out of Japan’s Nuclear Power Industry
4.0 The Worldwide Reactor Boom
4.1 Japan Chooses Light Water Reactors (LWRs) for Power Generation
4.2 Coping with the Global Oil Crisis and Marketing the Expansion of Nuclear Power
4.3 Effects of the Dengen Sampo on Nuclear Construction
4.4 Problems with Management of the Dengen Sampo
4.5 Effect of Dengen Sampo Subsidies on Local Economies
CHAPTER 5 The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Disaster
5.0 The Scope of the Disaster
5.1 Consequences and Costs
5.2 Underlying Causes of the Fukushima Disaster
5.3 Japan’s Response to Fukushima
5.4 Confronting the Larger Problem: A History of Accidents
5.5 Vulnerability to Natural Disasters
5.5.1 The Breadth of Japan’s Seismic Geology
5.5.2 Vulnerability of Japan’s Nuclear Plants to Earthquakes
5.5.3 Increased Scrutiny of Power Plant Seismic Hardening
5.6 More Reasons Why Japan Has So Many Nuclear Accidents
5.7 What Happened to TEPCO
CHAPTER 6 Nuclear Waste Storage and Disposal
6.0 False Starts
6.1 Near-Term Waste Management
6.2 Nuclear Waste Classification and Disposal System
6.3 Government Efforts to Establish Deep Underground Disposal Repository
6.4 Private Sector Interest in Nuclear Waste Storage and Disposal Facilities
6.4.1 Recyclable Fuel Storage Company (RFS)
6.4.2 Rokkasho Radioactive Waste Storage Facility
6.4.3 Rokkasho Low-Level Waste (LLW) Disposal Center
6.4.4 Rokkasho High-Level Waste (HLW) Storage—Vitrified Waste Storage Center (VWSC)
CHAPTER 7 Decommissioning Nuclear Facilities
7.0 Magnitude of the Challenge
7.1 Japan’s Experience in Decommissioning Reactors
7.2 Keeping Pace with the Growing Volume of Radioactive Waste
7.3 Challenges in Decommissioning Magnox Reactors
7.4 Challenges in Decommissioning Fukushima Reactors
7.5 Increasing Cost of Decommissioning and the Quest for Funds
CHAPTER 8 Status and Health of Japan’s Nuclear Industry
8.0 A False Dawn
8.1 Status of Japan’s Nuclear Reactor Fleet
8.2 The Nuclear Industry’s Declining Business Base
8.3 Data Falsification and Flagging Public Support for Nuclear Power
8.4 Recruiting New Employees from a Shrinking Talent Pool
CHAPTER 9 Creating a Viable Zero-Accident Nuclear Reactor Culture
9.0 Upgrade or Build Anew?
9.1 Cost and Frequency of Accidents
9.2 Total Costs
9.3 Impediments to an Effective Safety Culture
9.4 The Rickover Approach to Safety
9.5 Japan’s Nuclear Energy Policy and Attempts at Reform
9.6 Adherence to Principles of Program Management
9.7 Rebuilding the Talent Pool and Changing the Culture
9.8 Rebuilding the Public’s Confidence in Nuclear Power
9.9 Creating a Practical Incentive System for Safety
9.10 A Code of Ethics to Promote a Zero-Accident Culture
9.11 Prospects for Success
APPENDIX A: Cancelled Nuclear Power Reactors
APPENDIX B: Impact of Accident Costs on Cost of Power (in MWh)
APPENDIX C: Abbreviations and Acronyms
APPENDIX D: 2018 Code of Ethics from the Japan Atomic Energy Society
APPENDIX E: Japan’s
Nuclear Energy Policy (excerpts)
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1.1 The Power Reactor and Nuclear Fuel Development Corporation (1967-1998): Organizations and Responsibilities
Table 1.2 PNC, JAERI, JNC and JAEA Accidents and Consequences
Table 2.1 Changes in AEC’s Long-Term Plan for Nuclear Development and Commercialization of the FBR
Table 2.2 The Life Story of Monju
Table 2.3 World Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) Status
Table 2.4 Cost of Japanese Fast Breeder Reactor Projects
Table 2.5 Major Specifications of Fast Breeder Reactors Joyo and Monju
Table 3.1 Japan Nuclear Fuel Limited (JNFL): Businesses, Facility Construction, and Costs (As of October 2014)
Table 3.2 Japanese Companies Involved in the Front-End Nuclear Fuel Cycle* (As of December 1998)
Table 3.3 JCO’s Business Data
Table 3.4 JCO Accident: Status of Damage Compensation and Settlement (as of 13 May 2010)
Table 3.5 Industries that Suffered JCO Radiation Damage and Received Compensation (at the end of October 2000)
Table 3.6 Installation and Operational Status of Centrifuges at the Rokkasho Uranium Enrichment
Table 3.7 World Enrichment Capacity – Operational and Planned (thousand SWU/yr)
Table 3.8 Cost of Direct Disposal and Reprocessing and MOX Fuel Fabrication in Selected Studies
Table 3.9 Spent Fuel Management Programs of Selected Countries
Table 3.10 MOX Shipments to Japan
Table 3.11 Commercial MOX Fuel Fabrication Facilities in Japan and Abroad
Table 4.1 Summary of the Mihama Nuclear Plant
Table 4.2 Summary of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant
Table 4.3 Two Japanese Nuclear Industry Groups
Table 4.4 Three Major Energy Special Accounts Supported by the Oil and Coal Tax and the Power Source Development Acceleration Tax (PSDAT)
Table 4.5 Changes in Tax Rate in the Power Source Development Acceleration Tax
Table 4.6 Tax Rate Hikes on Crude Oil ∙ Petroleum Products, LNG∙LPG and Coal
Table 4.7 FY 2016 Year-End Settlement of the Energy Supply Demand Account (ESDA) under the Energy Measure Special Account (EMSA)
Table 4.8 Dengen Sampo Subsidies for Mihama and the Mihama Public Work Projects
Table 5.1 Chronology of Damage to Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2 and 3
Table 5.2 METI’s Revised Fukushima Accident Cost Estimates
Table 5.3 Cost of Safeguards That Could Have Alleviated the Fukushima Disaster
Table 5.4 The Nuclear Accidents at Fukushima Daiichi and Fukushima Daini
Table 5.5: Global Nuclear Power Plant Serious Accidents (Author’s rating for Japan)
Table 5.6 Recent Earthquakes on or near the Islands of Japan Greater than Magnitude 7
Table 6.1 Japan Power Company Effort to Increase Storage Capacity for Spent Nuclear Fuel
Table 6.2 Classification of Radioactive Waste
Table 6.3 Japan’s Current Spent Nuclear Waste Disposal Management
Table 7.1 Japan’s Nuclear Reactor Decommissioning Program: Reactors, Years of Operation, Costs of Decommissioning
Table 7.2 Decommissioning of Nuclear Power Reactors (NPRs) and Expected Shutdowns Worldwide
Table 7.3 Estimated Weight and Volume of Waste from Decommissioning Japan’s Nuclear Reactors
Table 7.4 Nuclear Reactors Eligible for METI’s New Plan and Amount of Reimbursement
Table 8.1 Status of Japan’s Nuclear Reactors Applying for Adjudication
Table 8.2 Nuclear Reactors under Construction or in Preparation for Construction, as of 24 May 2018
Table 8.3 Evaluation of the Results of METI’s Comprehensive Safety Investigation
Table 8.4 Status of Research Reactors at Research and Educational Institutions
Table 9.1 Estimated Range in Ten-Year Costs of Future Nuclear Reactor Fleet
Table 9.2 Range in Ten Year Costs for Japan’s Nuclear Reactor Fleet, Including Accidents
Table 9.3 Exemplar Set-aside Requirements Based Upon Assessed Safety Level
Table 9.4 Responses of Nuclear Industry Regarding Accidents and Data Falsification
Appendix A Table Cancelled Nuclear Power Reactors
Appendix B Table Calculation of Risk Premium
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure I Nuclear Fuel Cycle, Explained
Figure 1.1 The Change in the Budget and Number of Employees at the Japan Atomic Energy Agency
Figure 1.2 Japan’s Electric Power Company Expenditures
Figure 1.3 Japan’s Nuclear Industry
Figure 1.4 Safety Oversight: Changes Pre- and Post-Arisawa Committee
Figure 1.5 Safety Oversight: Post-Criticality Accident
Figure 2.1 Annual World Uranium Production and Requirements, 1949-2015
Figure 2.2 Stages of FBR Joyo Development
Figure 2.3 Schematic of Monju Sodium Leak
Figure 2.4 Schematic of Damaged Thermocouple Probe That Led to Sodium Leak
Figure 2.5 Schematic of Uncontrolled Drop of In-Vessel Transfer Machine (IVTM)
Figure 2.6 Changes in Monju’s Budget, 1980-2017
Figure 2.7 Concept for Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor (JSFR) from Mitsubishi Heavy Industries
Figure 3.1 Chronology of Declining JCO Corporate Performance in Run-up Criticality Accident
Figure 3.2 Crew Work Situation at the JCO Fuel Fabrication Plant
Figure 3.3 Microscopic Photo of Mr. Ouchi’s Chromosomes
Figure 3.4 Rokkasho Enrichment Plant Shipments of Enriched Uranium
Figure 3.5 Japan Nuclear Fuel Limited (JNFL) Facility in Rokkasho, Aomori Prefecture
Figure 3.6 Reprocessing Steps and Country Technologies at Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant
Figure 3.7 Glass Melting Furnace
Figure 3.8 History of Rokkasho Reprocessing Plant (RRP) Construction and Expected Date for Start of Operation
Figure 3.9 Trends in Japan’s Spent Fuel Received for Reprocessing
Figure 3.10 Status of Japan’s Plutonium Stockpile, as of end 2016
Figure 3.11 Locations of Plutonium Stockpiles in Japan, as of end 2016
Figure 3.12 Amount of Plutonium Held by Various Countries
Figure 4.1 FY 2016 Subsidy Structure for a Typical 1350 MW Nuclear Reactor Plant
Figure 4.2 Timeline of the 2016 Subsidy Structure for a Typical Nuclear Power Plant
Figure 4.3 Revenues from the Oil and Coal Tax and the Power Source Development Acceleration Tax, FY 2001-2019
Figure 4.4 Nuclear Reactors in Japan: Number of Construction Starts, 1966-2011
Figure 4.5 Nuclear Reactors in Japan: Number that Started Operations, 1966-2011
Figure 4.6 Cumulative Numbers of Nuclear Reactors in Japan, 1966-2011
Figure 4.7 Dramatic Changes in Nuclear Power Generation, 1973-2013
Figure 4.8 Number of Nuclear Power Reactors in Japan, Constructed or Cancelled
Figure 4.9 Trends in the Power Source Development Acceleration Account: Actual Expenditures and Unspent Funds, 1974-2016
Figure 4.10 Dengen Sampo Subsidies provided to the Town of Mihama, 2001-2009
Figure 4.11 Nuclear Plant Property Tax, Municipal Tax, and Ratio of Nuclear Property Tax to Total Tax, 2001-2009
Figure 4.12 Economic Snapshot of the Town of Mihama
Figure 4.13 Trends in Financial Strength Index of the Town of Mihama, 2001-2009
Figure 5.1 Schematic of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant
Figure 5.2 Fukushima Daiichi Damaged Reactors and Core Meltdowns at Units 1, 2 and 3
Figure 5.3 Meter-wide Hole in Grate Below Pressure Vessel in Reactor 2, Possibly Caused by Melted Nuclear Fuel (As of 6 February 2017)
Figure 5.4 Image Inside Primary Containment Vessel of Unit 2, Showing Fuel Assembly Lifting Handle and Tie Plate (as of 18 January 2018)
Figure 5.5 Areas Contaminated with Cesium-137 in Fukushima
Figure 5.6 Nuclear Damage Compensation Support Account
Figure 5.7 NDF Financial Reports on Damage Compensation Payments
Figure 5.8 Long-Term Japanese Debts, Ratio to GDP and International Comparison
Figure 5.9 Comparison of National Debt in Terms of Ratio to GDP
Figure 5.10 Schematic of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant Construction Site
Figure 5.11 Regulatory Changes for Nuclear Power Plants in Japan
Figure 5.12 Post-Fukushima Oversight: Overlapping Responsibilities of Bureaucracy
Figure 5.13 Trends in Nuclear Accidents and Accidents per Reactor, Fiscal Year 1966-2015
Figure 5.14 Japan Sits Atop Four Plates of the Earth’s Crust
Figure 5.15 Seismic Risk to Japan’s Nuclear Power Reactor Fleet
Figure 5.16 Epicenters of Swarm Earthquakes that Occurred Near the Hamaoka Nuclear Power Plant, August 29, 2015 to September 1, 2015
Figure 5.17 Locations of Nuclear Power Plants and Major Fault Lines in Western Japan
Figure 5.18 Kashiwazaki Kariwa Plant and its Newly Discovered Fault Lines
Figure 5.19 Status of Government Bond Sales for TEPCO, November 2011 to December 2014
Figure 5.20 Scheme of the Nuclear Damage Compensation and Decommissioning Facilitation Corporation (NDF) and the Flow of Funds, as of October 2016
Figure 6.1 Spent Nuclear Waste Stored at Power Plants in Japan: Cumulative Volume, Maximum Storage Capacity and Capacity Utilization Rate (As of September 2016)
Figure 6.2 Radioactive Waste Disposal Methods in Japan
Figure 6.3 Map of Scientific Characteristics of Regions in terms of Suitability for Nuclear Waste Disposal
Figure 6.4 Nuclear Waste Management Organization’s Process for Establishment of Final Nuclear Waste Disposal Facility
Figure 6.5 Overview of the Recyclable-Fuel Storage Facility
Figure 6.6 Return of Processed High-Level Wastes from the UK and France
Figure 7.1 The First Decommissioning Case: Waste from the 90 MWt BWR Japan Power Demonstrator Reactor
Figure 7.2 Facilities and Management for Water Management at Fukushima Daiichi
Figure 7.3 Three Scenerios where Nuclear Power Companies Might Encounter Difficulty
Figure 8.1 Age Profile and Adjudication Status of Japan’s Power Reactors, as of 24 May 2018
Figure 8.2 Status of Japan’s Nuclear Industry: Power Company Expenditures and Total Sales and Standing Orders of Other Nuclear Businesses
Figure 8.3 Status of the Japan’s Nuclear Industry: Trends in Number of Employees
Figure 8.4 Status of Japan’s Nuclear Industry: Private Sector Capital and R&D Investment
Figure 8.5 Status of Japan’s Nuclear Industry: Government Nuclear R&D Budget, 2002-2017
Figure 8.6 Status of Japan’s Nuclear Industry: Company Views of Business Outlook
Figure 8.7 Status of the Japan’s Nuclear Industry: Industry’s Expectations of Government
Figure 8.8 JAERO’s Public Opinion Survey on Nuclear Power
Figure 8.9 Company Perspectives on Recruitment Shortfalls, FY2017
Figure 8.10 JAIF Seminars: Number of Student Attendees and Prospective Employers
Figure 8.11 Trends in University Level Students Majoring in Nuclear-Related Studies
Figure 8.12 Declining Number of University Professors Teaching Nuclear Science and Engineering
Figure 8.13 Educational Use of Experimental Reactors and Critical Assemblies
Dr. Noriko Hikosaka Behling 